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It has long been known by geologists that the
world’s oil supply is finite. Oil is not a renewable
resource and it is found in relatively limited
geological environments around the world. This is
the subject of Beyond Oil, The View from
Hubbert’s Peak, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes,
Professor Emeritus at Princeton University published
in 2005, (202 pages, hardcover, Hill & Wang).
In general oil is
found in a zone called the oil horizon located
between 7,500 feet and 15,000 feet below the surface
in organic rich sedimentary formations. Deeper than
that, the temperature of the rock is too hot for oil
molecules to stay together, and above that the
hydrocarbons are not heated enough to separate into
crude oil. Sandstone, dolomite and limestone form
virtually all the host rock for oil production in
the world and comprise only about 1% of the world’s
rock formations. In addition, specific geologic
structures are required to trap the oil. According
to Professor Deffeyes, seven specific criteria are
required for oil to be present in a particular
location. Without any one of these criteria, oil is
not present, period.
While Saudi Arabia
has the largest annual production of oil, the United
States and Russia are second and third place
according to Deffeyes. Saudi Arabia has 1,560
producing wells, Russia 41,192 wells and the United
States has 521,070. The United States is one of the
most drilled and explored places in the world.
Between 1901 and
2005, oil use and production consistently increased,
first in the United States and then in the world. In
1956, M. King Hubbert, American geologist and
geophysicist, predicted the United States oil
production would peak and then start to decline by
the early 1970s. When his predictions came true,
Hubbert became an instant folk hero among energy
conservationists. This became known as Peak Oil or
the point when annual production of oil reaches a
maximum and then starts to decline. It can be
diagrammed as a bell shaped curve with a peak at the
top.
Hubbert then
turned his calculations on world oil production and
supply. His methods worked the same way predicting
the world oil supply as they did with the United
States supply. Essentially, world oil production
peaked early in the 21st century
according to Hubbert.
Professor Deffeyes
worked with M. King Hubbert, and explains in detail
the process that Hubbert used to make these
predictions. He discusses both oil and natural gas
and the implications of being on the downward side
of Hubbert’s Peak. While Hubbert used some very
complex mathematics in his initial calculations,
Professor Deffeyes explains Hubbert’s calculations
using relatively simple mathematics. In fact, simple
algebra forms the basis of his analysis and it is
understandable to many with a basis in high school
mathematics.
There is a lot of
information and disinformation about renewable
energy. This book discusses many of today’s energy
sources and those of the foreseeable future. It
dispels many of the myths and disinformation about
energy so glibly passed around by a largely
uninformed public, self serving political leaders
and a media hungry for ratings.
Because oil has
played such a large part of the world’s economy, it
is in everyone’s best interest to become informed
about energy supplies and sources. Energy fuels such
as coal, geothermal, uranium and many of the
so-called alternative energy sources all will be
impacted by the declining amount of oil available on
the downward side of the peak oil curve. This book
is a must read for anyone interested in learning
more than the common platitudes about energy and, in
particular, oil.
H. Court Young
Geologist, author and publisher
Promoting awareness through the written word
http://www.hcourtyoung.com
http://www.tmcco.com
(303) 726 8320
©August, 2007 |
The
Orphan Boy mine was started in Colorado's glory days. It was reopened in
1948 by one man, Herbert T. Young, who had a passion for mining. He was
a member of the "greatest generation."