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Oil is
a finite resource. The world production will reach a
peak at some point in time and then start to
decline. But how do we know that oil is a finite
resource? There has been enough exploration for oil
around the world to discover that oil occurs only in
a relatively small set of geological conditions.
There are seven required conditions according to
Kenneth S. Deffeyes in his book Beyond Oil, The
View from Hubbert’s Peak.
1.
Organic rich
sedimentary rock. Less than 1% of all the
sedimentary rock on the earth contains more than 5%
organic material.
2.
A depth of more
than 7,500 feet to have the 175 degree temperature
to create the hydrocarbon molecules in crude oil.
3.
A depth of less
than 15,000 feet so that the hydrocarbon molecules
are not destroyed by excess heat.
4.
Because oil is
lighter than water it tends to migrate toward the
surface of the earth. A geological structure such as
a salt dome, anticline, fault or even a meteorite
crater needs to trap the oil.
5.
Rock, such as
sandstone, dolomite or limestone, with significant
porosity needs to be the host rock to form a
reservoir for the oil.
6.
The pore spaces
of the rock need to be connected (termed
permeability), so the oil has enough space between
the grains of the rock.
7.
There needs to
be a cap rock or impermeable layer between the oil
bearing rock and the surface. Often these are shale,
fine grained mudstone or halite (salt) layers.
Without any one of
these conditions, there is no oil.
Peak
oil is the point at which oil production reaches the
maximum. The peak oil date of 1971 for the United
States was predicted by M. King Hubbert in 1956. He
showed mathematically that production of oil in the
world follows a "bell shaped curve". Ridiculed at
first, Hubbert was proven correct when oil
production did peak in 1971 in the United States.
While
they are not sure when this worldwide peak will
occur, Geologists have no doubt that this will
happen. Hubbert’s calculations applied to the world
oil supply predict a range of 2006 to 2010. Other
predictions, such as those from the United States
Geological Survey (USGS) range from 2006 to 2025 or
later. Many articles reflect the uncertainty of what
to do next from oil insiders, as well as the oil
companies.
"If the actions—rather
than the words—of the oil business’s major players
provide the best gauge of how they see the future,
then ponder the following. Crude oil prices have
doubled since 2001, but oil companies have increased
their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a
small fraction. Likewise, U.S. refineries are
working close to capacity, yet no new refinery has
been constructed since 1976. And oil tankers are
fully booked, but outdated ships are being
decommissioned faster than new ones are being
built."
Mark Williams M.I.T.'s
TechnologyReview.com
The
world is using approximately one thousand barrels of
oil per second in 2007. Once production starts to
decline, the gap between the demand and the supply
will grow. If one assumes a 5% annual growth in the
gap between the demand and supply, then ten years
after the peak, we would need to substitute nearly
one half the oil that we use today. That is roughly
10 to 15 million barrels per day.
Another quote (from Out of Gas, David
Goodstein) puts this into perspective:
"In fact, if we put
our minds to it, we could start trying to kick the
fossil fuel habit now, protecting the planet's
climate from further damage and preserving the fuels
for future generations as the source of chemical
goods. Ninety percent of the organic chemicals we
use - pharmaceuticals, agricultural chemicals,
plastics - are made from petroleum; there are better
uses for the stuff than burning it up. To make such
an about-face will require global political
leadership that is both visionary and courageous. It
seems unlikely that we will be so lucky."
The
issue of Peak Oil is similar to the issue of
terrorism, in the sense that it will not go away. As
our supply of oil becomes more critical, the
vulnerability to attack increases dramatically. Our
supplies (ships, pipelines and oil rigs), on-loading
and off-loading ports and refining facilities become
critical targets.
One
way of decreasing our vulnerability is to decrease
our dependence on oil in a variety of ways. The less
dependent we are as a society the less damage a
disruption in the supply will cause. One of the ways
we can start to become less dependent on oil is to
educate ourselves about the problem and learn about
potential solutions. There is much more that can be
done beside buying a new $25,000 hybrid car (which
is not a bad step if you can afford it).
Terrorism and Peak
Oil
John
Abraham, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., made the
following comment about the terrorists that we are
facing today:
"Terrorists are using
logic to trade off how they're going to accomplish
their goal, which is to create chaos."
While
our water supplies are potential targets, so are our
energy supplies. Everything from our electrical
transmission lines to our refineries and oil
off-loading facilities. As noted in the Hirsch
Study,
"Oil prices
have traditionally been volatile. Causes include
political events, weather, labor strikes,
infrastructure problems, and fears of
terrorism...The factors that cause oil price
escalation and volatility could be further
exacerbated by terrorism. ... For example, in the
summer of 2004, it was estimated that the threat of
terrorism had added a premium of 25 - 33 percent to
the price of a barrel of oil.118 As world oil
peaking is approached, it is not difficult to
imagine that the terrorism premium could increase
even more."
Further, the peak oil crisis might well be
exacerbated by the threat of terrorism (as noted in
the Hirsch Study):
·
World oil
production peaking is occurring now or will happen
soon.
·
Middle East
reserves are much less than stated.
·
Terrorism stays
at current levels or increases and concentrates on
damaging oil production, transportation, refining
and distribution.
·
Political
instability in major oil producing countries results
in unexpected, sustained world-scale oil shortages.
·
Market signals
and terrorism delay the realization of peaking,
delaying the initiation of mitigation.
·
Large-scale,
sustained Middle East political instability hinders
oil production.
·
Consumers
demand even larger, less fuel-efficient cars and
SUVs.
·
Expansion of
energy production is hindered by increasing
environmental challenges, creating shortages beyond
just liquid fuels.
The following study of
the peak oil crisis was done in February 2005. It
gives a good analysis of the problem and possible
mitigation:
PEAKING OF WORLD OIL
PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT,
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader, Roger Bezdek,
MISI, Robert Wendling, MISI
As a geologist, I have
known about peak oil since my days at the University
of Arizona about the time that King Hubbert came out
with his calculations. I am dismayed that the
leadership of the United States has not listened to
technical experts and redirected energy policy since
my college days.
H. Court Young
Geologist, author and publisher
Promoting awareness through the written word
http://www.hcourtyoung.com
http://www.tmcco.com
(303) 726 8320
©August, 2007 |
The
Orphan Boy mine was started in Colorado's glory days. It was reopened in
1948 by one man, Herbert T. Young, who had a passion for mining. He was
a member of the "greatest generation."